A data story in five verses and a turn

Everybody Knows

Five verses of verified public data about how India actually works — and one question at the end.

There is a difference between everybody knowing something and everybody knowing that everybody knows. Rigged systems survive in that gap. This piece closes it.

1 · Verse 1 The Ledger

Everybody knows.

Everybody knows who the growth was for.

0.0%

of national wealth is held by the top 1% of adults — the highest share the series has ever recorded.

where’s this from?

Share of national wealth held by the top 1% of Indian adults

40.1% (2022-23) — the highest level in the series

Abstract: “By 2022-23, top 1% income and wealth shares (22.6% and 40.1%) are at their highest historical levels.” Levels in Table 3.

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Concentration compared with the colonial period

More unequal than under the British Raj (paper’s benchmark estimates)

Conclusion: “As per our benchmark estimates, the Billionaire Raj headed by India’s modern bourgeoisie is now more unequal than the British Raj headed by the colonialist forces.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

Income keeps the same ledger. Of every ₹100 the country earns, the top 1% takes ₹22.6 — the highest since the series began in 1922 — while the entire bottom half shares ₹15. You would have to stand at nearly the 90th percentile just to earn the average income.

where’s this from?

Share of national income taken by the top 1%

22.6% (2022-23) — the highest since the series began in 1922

Abstract: “top 1% income and wealth shares (22.6% and 40.1%) are at their highest historical levels and India’s top 1% income share is among the very highest in the world.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Share of national income going to the bottom half

15% (2022-23)

Section 3 (p.20, Table 2): “the bottom 50% were getting only 15% of India’s national income in 2022-23.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Where the average income sits in the distribution

Nearly the 90th percentile earns the national average income

Section 3 (p.20): “one would have to be at nearly the 90th percentile to earn the average income in India.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

The honest counter-trendNone material — the source paper’s own finding is that concentration is still rising. The piece says that plainly.

Before the data: how much of India’s wealth do you think the top 1% holds?

25%

the one — 40 blocksthe next nine — 25the other ninety — 35

where’s this from?

Average wealth of a top-1% adult

₹5.4 crore — 40× the average Indian adult

Table 3 (Section 4): “The top 1% possesses an average of INR 54 million in wealth, 40 times the average Indian.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Average wealth of the ~10,000 wealthiest adults

₹22.6 billion (₹2,260 crore) each — 16,763× the average adult

Table 3 (Section 4): “the wealthiest ∼10,000 individuals out of 920 million Indian adults own an average of INR 22.6 billion in wealth, 16,763 times the average Indian.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Share of national wealth held by the top 10%

65% (2022-23), up from 45% in 1961

Section 4 (Figure 9): “From 45% in 1961, top 10% wealth shares increased to 65% in 2022-23.”

Bharti, Chancel, Piketty & Somanchi, “Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj”, World Inequality Lab WP 2024/09 (2024 (data year 2022-23)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

View as table
Verse 1 — verified figures (WIL WP 2024/09, data year 2022-23, retrieved 2026-07-16)
Top 1% share of national wealth40.1%
Top 10% share of national wealth65%
Top 1% share of national income22.6%
Bottom 50% share of national income15%
Top 1% average wealth₹5.4 crore (40× the average adult)
Wealthiest ~10,000 adults, average wealth₹2,260 crore (16,763×)

2 · Verse 2 The House

Everybody knows.

Everybody knows what a seat costs.

0%

of elected MPs declared criminal cases — 251 of 543. The highest ever. 170 face serious charges; 27 are convicted.

where’s this from?

Winners of Lok Sabha 2024 with declared criminal cases

251 of 543 (46%) — the highest ever

ADR (06/06/2024): “A record 251 (46 percent) of the 543 newly elected members have criminal cases registered against them.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Winners facing serious criminal charges

170 (31%); 27 winners declared convictions

ADR: “170 (31 percent) face serious charges, including rape, murder, attempt to murder, kidnapping, and crimes against women”; “27 winning candidates have declared they have been convicted in criminal cases.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

The same share across the last five general elections

23% (2004) → 30% (2009) → 34% (2014) → 43% (2019) → 46% (2024)

ADR: “A total of 233 MPs (43 per cent) had declared criminal cases against themselves in 2019, 185 (34 per cent) in 2014, 162 (30 percent) in 2009 and 125 (23 percent) in 2004.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

The incentive is on the record. A candidate with declared criminal cases had a 15.3% chance of winning in 2024; a clean record, 4.4%. A crore in declared assets: 19.6%. Under ₹1 crore: 0.7%.

where’s this from?

Chance of winning, with vs without declared criminal cases

15.3% vs 4.4% (Lok Sabha 2024)

ADR winners report (Chances of winning section): “The chances of winning for a candidate with declared criminal cases in the Lok Sabha 2024 is 15.3% whereas for a candidate with clean background, it is 4.4%.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Chance of winning, crorepati vs under ₹1 crore in assets

19.6% vs 0.7% (Lok Sabha 2024)

ADR winners report: “The chance of winning for a crorepati candidate in the Lok Sabha 2024 is 19.6%, whereas chance of winning for a candidate with assets less than Rs. 1 crore is 0.7%.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Why these numbers exist at all (the honest counter-trend)

Sworn affidavits, filed by every candidate, read by ADR for all 543 winners

ADR/NEW analyse the self-sworn affidavits candidates must file with the Election Commission of India; the winners report covers all 543 winning candidates. (Report disclaimer: “All information in this report has been taken by ADR from the website of the Election Commission of India.”)

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

The honest counter-trendDisclosure itself is the good news — these numbers exist only because candidates must file sworn affidavits and ADR reads all 543, every time.

chance of winning a Lok Sabha seat, 2024

with declared criminal cases15.3%
clean record4.4%
crorepati19.6%
under ₹1 crore0.7%
23%200430%200934%201443%201946%2024

102 re-elected MPs · avg assets

15.83 cr. cr

2014 → 2024 · the same 102 people at three elections · +₹17.29 crore (+110%) in a decade

93% crorepatis (504/543)avg assets 46.34 cr31% serious cases27 convicted

where’s this from?

Crorepati share of the new Lok Sabha

504 of 543 (93%), up from 58% in 2009

ADR: “Out of the 543 winning candidates analyzed, 504 (93%) are crorepatis” — “an increase from 88% in 2019, 82% in 2014, and 58% in 2009.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Average declared assets per winning MP

₹46.34 crore

ADR winners report: “The average of assets per winning candidate in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 is Rs 46.34 Crore.”

ADR / National Election Watch, “Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysis of Criminal Background, Financial, Education, Gender and other details of Winners” (2024 (published 06 June 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Average assets of the 102 MPs re-elected in 2014, 2019 and 2024

₹15.83 cr (2014) → ₹24.21 cr (2019) → ₹33.13 cr (2024) — +110% in a decade

ADR (07/01/2026): average assets of “102 out of 103 re-elected MPs” were “Rs 15.83 Crores” (2014), “Rs 24.21 Crores” (2019), “Rs 33.13 Crores” (2024); growth “Rs 17.29 Crores” (110%). Replaces the brief’s 214-MP 2019→2024 figures, which are not in the current primary.

ADR / National Election Watch, “Analysis of Assets Comparison of Re-Elected MPs Between 2014 to 2024 Lok Sabha Elections” (updated) (2026 (published 07 January 2026)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

View as table
Verse 2 — verified figures (ADR/NEW, Lok Sabha 2024 winners + re-elected MPs analyses, retrieved 2026-07-16)
Winners with declared criminal cases251 of 543 (46%)
— trend 2004 → 202423% → 30% → 34% → 43% → 46%
Winners facing serious charges170 (31%); 27 convicted
Chance of winning: declared cases vs clean15.3% vs 4.4%
Chance of winning: crorepati vs under ₹1 crore19.6% vs 0.7%
Crorepati winners504 of 543 (93%)
Average assets per winner₹46.34 crore
Re-elected MPs (102) avg assets 2014 → 2019 → 2024₹15.83 cr → ₹24.21 cr → ₹33.13 cr (+110%)

3 · Verse 3 The Queue

Everybody knows.

Everybody knows the verdict takes a lifetime.

0

cases pending in India’s district courts and High Courts. The Supreme Court’s own docket is additional.

one pending case for roughly every 25 Indians

live NJDG figures, re-pulled at launch 2026-07-16 · the grid updates daily

where’s this from?

Cases pending in District & Taluka courts

4,98,22,222 (updates daily — re-pulled at launch, 2026-07-16)

NJDG district dashboard, as displayed at launch 2026-07-16: “Total Cases: 4,98,22,222” (civil 1,13,29,912 + criminal 3,84,92,310).

National Judicial Data Grid — District & Taluka Courts of India (live dashboard) (live (as displayed 2026-07-16)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Cases pending in the High Courts

64,57,828 (updates daily — re-pulled at launch, 2026-07-16)

NJDG High Courts dashboard, as displayed at launch 2026-07-16: “Total Cases: 64,57,828” (civil 44,99,141 + criminal 19,58,687). District + High Courts together: 5,62,80,050 — the Supreme Court’s own docket is additional.

National Judicial Data Grid — High Courts of India (live dashboard) (live (as displayed 2026-07-16)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

72.6%

of everyone in an Indian prison is an undertrial — 3,71,440 people, end of 2024. Not convicted of anything.

67.3%

of undertrials with caste recorded are SC, ST or OBC (SC+ST 31.3%, OBC 36%). Poverty decides who waits inside.

15 / million

judges — 21,285 for 1.4 billion people. The Law Commission recommended 50 per million. In 1987.

where’s this from?

Undertrials as a share of India’s prison population

72.6% — 3,65,899 of 5,04,049 Indian inmates (31 Dec 2024)

NCRB PSI 2024, Chapter 3: “Out of the 5,04,049 Indian national prisoners, 1,34,507 were Convicts, 3,65,899 were Undertrials and 3,008 were Detenues” (undertrials 72.6%, convicts 26.7%). Chapter note: West Bengal’s 2024 data was not received; its 2023 data is used.

NCRB, Prison Statistics India 2024, Chapter 3 — Indian Prisoners (2024 (as on 31 December 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Total undertrial prisoners including foreign nationals

371,440 at the end of 2024 — 72.6% of the prison population

IndiaSpend (PSI 2024 analysis): “By the end of 2024, undertrial prisoners accounted for 72.6% of India’s prison population” — 371,440 people; 66.2% in 2005; peak 77.1% in 2021.

IndiaSpend (Vijay Jadhav), analysis of NCRB Prison Statistics India 2024: “Who Are India’s 371,000 Prisoners Awaiting Trial?” (2026 (25 June 2026)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Caste composition of undertrials (of those with caste recorded)

SC/ST/OBC together: 67.3% (SC+ST 31.3%, OBC 36%)

IndiaSpend (PSI 2024 analysis): “Persons from Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Other Backward Classes (OBC) communities together accounted for 67.3%” of undertrials.

IndiaSpend (Vijay Jadhav), analysis of NCRB Prison Statistics India 2024: “Who Are India’s 371,000 Prisoners Awaiting Trial?” (2026 (25 June 2026)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

How many judges India has, against the recommended strength

21,285 judges ≈ 15 per million; the 1987 Law Commission recommended 50 per million

IJR 2025 press release: “For 1.4 billion people, India has 21,285 judges, or approximately 15 judges per million population. This continues to be significantly below the 1987 Law Commission’s recommendation of 50 judges per million population. Vacancy among High Court judges is at 33%, and 21% at the district judiciary.” (Replaces the brief’s unsourced “~1 judge per 50,000”.)

India Justice Report 2025 — national press release (2025 (judge strength as of January 2025)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Undertrials released on bail during 2024 (the counter-trend)

~1.5 million, plus 150,000 convicts and ~9,500 detenues

IndiaSpend (PSI 2024 analysis): “About 1.5 million undertrial prisoners, 150,000 convicts and about 9,500 detenues were released on bail during 2024.”

IndiaSpend (Vijay Jadhav), analysis of NCRB Prison Statistics India 2024: “Who Are India’s 371,000 Prisoners Awaiting Trial?” (2026 (25 June 2026)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

The honest counter-trendThe undertrial share has come down from its 2021 peak — 77.1% then, 72.6% at the end of 2024 — and about 1.5 million undertrials were released on bail during 2024.

100 people in Indian prisons

1 dot ≈ 5,100 prisoners

73 — not convicted of anything6 — inside 3+ years27 — convicted

~30,000 of the undertrials — 8.1% — have been inside for more than three years awaiting trial.

where’s this from?

Undertrials in custody for more than three years

~30,000 people — 8.1% of all undertrials

IndiaSpend (PSI 2024 analysis): “Nearly 30,000 prisoners (8.1%) had spent more than three years in custody.”

IndiaSpend (Vijay Jadhav), analysis of NCRB Prison Statistics India 2024: “Who Are India’s 371,000 Prisoners Awaiting Trial?” (2026 (25 June 2026)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

View as table
Verse 3 — verified figures (NJDG live 2026-07-16; NCRB PSI 2024; IndiaSpend analysis; IJR 2025)
Pending — District & Taluka courts4,98,22,222
Pending — High Courts64,57,828
Pending — combined (SC docket additional)5,62,80,050
Undertrials, share of prison population (2024)72.6%
Undertrials, total incl. foreign nationals3,71,440
— share in 2005 / peak (2021)66.2% / 77.1%
Undertrials inside 3+ years~30,000 (8.1%)
Undertrials who are SC/ST/OBC (of caste-recorded)67.3%
Undertrials released on bail during 2024~1.5 million
Judges nationwide (Jan 2025)21,285 ≈ 15/million (recommended: 50)

4 · Verse 4 The Commons

Everybody knows.

Everybody knows one bill can sink a family — and one classroom can’t teach it to read.

The bill

a hospital bill, eating an income from below · poverty line marked

0.0 cr

Indians pushed into poverty by health spending — every year.

where’s this from?

Indians pushed into poverty by health spending, per year

~5.5 crore (55 million), annually

WHO India health system review (30 Mar 2022), p. 27: “The resulting financial burden continues to push over 55 million people into poverty every year”. PHFI (Selvaraj et al., June 2018) first quantified it: OOP health expenses drove 55 million Indians into poverty in 2017 — 38 million by expenditure on medicines alone.

WHO, “India health system review”, Health Systems in Transition Vol. 11 No. 1 (Asia Pacific Observatory on Health Systems and Policies; Selvaraj, Karan, Srivastava, Bhan & Mukhopadhyay), 30 March 2022 (2022 (WHO HiT, data year 2011-12); 2018 (PHFI, data year 2017)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

100 households

1 cell = 1 household in 100

17 of 100 households face catastrophic health spending — more than 10% of income on one illness.

where’s this from?

Households facing catastrophic health spending (>10% of income)

over 17% of households, every year

WHO India health system review (30 Mar 2022), p. 27: “…with over 17% of Indian households incurring catastrophic levels of health expenditures annually.”

WHO, “India health system review”, Health Systems in Transition Vol. 11 No. 1 (Asia Pacific Observatory on Health Systems and Policies; Selvaraj, Karan, Srivastava, Bhan & Mukhopadhyay), 30 March 2022 (2022 (WHO HiT, data year 2011-12); 2018 (PHFI, data year 2017)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

out-of-pocket share of India’s health spending: 69.4% (2004-05) → 48.21% (2018-19) → 39.4% (2021-22)

where’s this from?

Out-of-pocket share of India’s total health expenditure

69.4% (2004-05) → 48.21% (2018-19) → 39.4% (2021-22)

NHA 2021-22 (official PDF): “Households’ Out-of-pocket expenditure on health (OOPE) is Rs. 3,56,254 crores (39.4% of [total health expenditure])”. Earlier points per NHA series as quoted in Down To Earth: “48.21 per cent in 2018-2019 from 69.4 per cent in 2004-2005, according to the National Health Accounts.” (The brief’s China comparison was dropped — no primary.)

National Health Accounts Estimates for India 2021-22 (NHSRC / Union Health Ministry) (2021-22 (published September 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

The classroom

0 of 100

rural Class-5 children in government schools cannot read a Class-2 text (ASER 2024 — 6,49,491 children, 605 districts).

100 class-5 children

1 cell = 1 child in 100

76.6%

of Class-3 children (govt schools) can’t read that text

69.3%

of Class-5 children (all schools) can’t solve a division problem

where’s this from?

Rural government-school Std V children who cannot read a Std II text

55.2% (2024) — i.e. 44.8% can, recovered from 38.5% in 2022

ASER 2024 National Findings: “The proportion of Std V children in government schools who can read a Std II level text fell from 44.2% in 2018 to 38.5% in 2022 and then recovered to 44.8% in 2024.” The page states the government-school qualifier the brief omitted (private-school Std V: 59.3%).

ASER 2024 — Annual Status of Education Report, National Findings (Pratham) (2024 (survey; published January 2025)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Rural government-school Std III children who cannot read a Std II text

76.6% (2024) — i.e. 23.4% can, the highest since the survey began

ASER 2024: “basic reading levels for Std III children enrolled in government schools are the highest that they have been since the inception of the ASER survey… 20.9% in 2018… fell to 16.3% in 2022, and has increased to 23.4% in 2024.”

ASER 2024 — Annual Status of Education Report, National Findings (Pratham) (2024 (survey; published January 2025)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Rural Std V children (all schools) who cannot solve a division problem

69.3% (2024) — i.e. 30.7% can, up from 25.6% in 2022

ASER 2024: “At the all-India level, the proportion of children in Std V who can at least do a numerical division problem… was 27.9% in 2018, 25.6% in 2022 and then rose to 30.7% in 2024.” Survey scale: “reached 649,491 children in 17,997 villages across 605 rural districts.”

ASER 2024 — Annual Status of Education Report, National Findings (Pratham) (2024 (survey; published January 2025)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Government share of total health expenditure (the honest line)

48.00% of THE in 2021-22 — public spending finally ahead of out-of-pocket

NHA 2021-22 (official PDF): government health expenditure “(48.00 % of THE, 1.84% GDP, and Rs. 3,169 per capita)” against OOPE at 39.4% of THE.

National Health Accounts Estimates for India 2021-22 (NHSRC / Union Health Ministry) (2021-22 (published September 2024)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

View as table
Verse 4 — verified figures (WHO India health system review 2022 (primary) + PHFI 2018; NHA 2021-22 official PDF; ASER 2024, retrieved 2026-07-16)
Pushed into poverty by health spending, yearly~5.5 crore (55 million)
Households facing catastrophic health spending>17%
Out-of-pocket share of health spending69.4% (2004-05) → 48.21% (2018-19) → 39.4% (2021-22)
Government share of health spending (2021-22)48% of THE
Rural govt-school Std V who cannot read a Std II text55.2%
Rural govt-school Std III who cannot read a Std II text76.6%
Rural Std V (all schools) who cannot do division69.3%
ASER 2024 survey scale6,49,491 children · 605 districts

The honest counter-trendBoth curves are bending. NHA 2021-22 puts the out-of-pocket share at 39.4% of health spending, with public spending (48%) finally ahead of it; and ASER 2024 reading is the best recovery since the pandemic — government-school Class-3 reading its highest since the survey began. The commons are failing less; they are still failing most.

5 · Verse 5 The Ladder

Everybody knows.

Everybody knows where you’ll end up — they knew the day your father was born.

Take a son born to a father in the bottom half of the education ladder. Whether he was born in the 1960s or the 1980s — before liberalization or after it — he can expect to reach about the 38th percentile. In the United States, hardly a mobility paradise, the same measure is 41.7. A daughter here lands at 35.6 — two rungs lower. India’s miracle raised living standards without changing the odds of climbing.

where’s this from?

Upward mobility of sons born to bottom-half fathers, across cohorts

Flat: [36.6, 39.0] for the 1960s cohort → [37.1, 37.2] for the 1980s cohort

§5.3: “our main measure of upward mobility — bottom half mobility — has been largely flat over the sample period… moved from [36.6,39.0] for the 1960–69 birth cohort to [37.5,37.9] for the 1980–85 birth cohort.” Table 1: all-groups [36.6,39.0] (1960–69) → [37.1,37.2] (1980–89). Intro: a son of a bottom-half father “obtains percentile 37.7.”

Asher, Novosad & Rafkin, “Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), 2024 (2024 (IHDS 2012 data; cohorts 1950s–1980s)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

The same measure in the United States, for comparison

41.7 — “low intergenerational mobility by OECD standards”, still above India’s

§5.3: “For comparison, this measure in the U.S., which has low intergenerational mobility by OECD standards, is 41.7.” (Authors’ calculation from Chetty et al. 2020.)

Asher, Novosad & Rafkin, “Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), 2024 (2024 (IHDS 2012 data; cohorts 1950s–1980s)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Daughters’ mobility, youngest cohort

35.6 — about two rank points below sons

§5.3: “In the youngest birth cohort, father-daughter mobility is 35.6, about two rank points lower than father-son mobility. Daughters are thus less likely to escape low relative socioeconomic status than sons.”

Asher, Novosad & Rafkin, “Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), 2024 (2024 (IHDS 2012 data; cohorts 1950s–1980s)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

Before the chart: by the 1980s, were the odds of climbing higher, the same, or lower than in the 1960s?

30354045US · 41.71991 liberalization · the IT boom · the 8% yearsthe line does not move.sons — all groups · 37.2sons — Scheduled Castes · 37.0daughters — all groups · 35.5born 1960sborn 1980sexpected rank, child of a bottom-half father
where’s this from?

Scheduled Castes’ mobility change, 1960s → 1980s cohorts (the honest line)

Rose by [1.8, 4.1] ranks — [32.9,35.2] → [36.9,37.0], converging with the average

Table 1 (father-son): SCs [32.9,35.2] (1960–69) → [36.9,37.0] (1980–89), change [1.8, 4.1]. Intro: SCs and STs “have closed respectively 50% and 30% of the mobility gap” — and §7’s natural experiment “suggests that affirmative action for Scheduled Castes has substantially improved their mobility.”

Asher, Novosad & Rafkin, “Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), 2024 (2024 (IHDS 2012 data; cohorts 1950s–1980s)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

where’s this from?

Muslims’ mobility change over the same cohorts (same finding, stated)

Fell by [2.3, 4.7] ranks — [31.3,33.6] → [28.9,29.0]

Table 1 (father-son): Muslims [31.3,33.6] (1960–69) → [28.9,29.0] (1980–89), change [-4.7, -2.3]. The paper: rising mobility for Scheduled Castes “and declining mobility among Muslims.”

Asher, Novosad & Rafkin, “Intergenerational Mobility in India: New Measures and Estimates across Time and Social Groups”, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 16(2), 2024 (2024 (IHDS 2012 data; cohorts 1950s–1980s)) · primary source ↗ · retrieved 2026-07-16

View as table
Verse 5 — verified figures (ANR, AEJ: Applied 16(2) 2024, Table 1 + §5.3, retrieved 2026-07-16). Bounds in brackets.
Sons, all groups — 1960s → 1980s cohort[36.6, 39.0] → [37.1, 37.2]
Sons, Scheduled Castes[32.9, 35.2] → [36.9, 37.0] (change +[1.8, 4.1])
Sons, Muslims[31.3, 33.6] → [28.9, 29.0] (change [−4.7, −2.3])
Sons, Forward/Others — 1980s cohort[41.3, 41.3]
Daughters, all groups[34.9, 41.0] → [35.4, 35.5]; youngest cohort 35.6
Son of a bottom-half father, youngest cohort37.7th percentile
Same measure, United States41.7
Mobility gap closed since the 1960s (SC / ST)50% / 30%

The honest counter-trendWhere policy pushed, the line moved: Scheduled Castes gained 1.8–4.1 ranks between the 1960s and 1980s cohorts — closing about half their gap with everyone else — and the paper credits affirmative action. Muslim mobility fell 2.3–4.7 ranks over the same cohorts. Same finding, stated.

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